The price of gold set a new record Friday amid a turbulent stock market, an evolving trade war and softening economic indicators. The precious metal opened Friday morning at $3,194.20 — its highest opening price in history — with intraday prices reaching as high as $3,244, putting its year-to-date gain at 38%.
The ongoing rally has been bolstered by a weakened U.S. dollar, which has fallen in value by 8.39% since Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. The fallout from President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to fuel uncertainty, leading numerous investment banks to increase the odds of a recession later this year despite the administration’s pause announcement on Wednesday.
With stocks continuing to flounder, bearish investor sentiment has risen 100% since Jan. 22, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold, silver and fixed-income securities.
Will gold prices continue to rally?
Gold has seen a significant appreciation since the start of April. According to Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer and co-founder of Allegiance Gold, Friday’s record price confirms a decisive shift in bullish momentum for gold.
“The outlook for 2025 is between $3,500 to $4,000,” Ebkarian tells Money in an email.
Ebkarian says falling inflation could also factor in gold’s ongoing rally. Consumer prices saw a year-over-year gain of 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February.
While there is speculation that Trump’s tariffs could increase costs, for now, Ebkarian notes that falling inflation could persuade the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark interest rate, which would be a catalyst for gold as investors may seek out alternatives to investments that suffer from lower yields.
“Yields on CDs and bonds could lower the opportunity cost of investing in gold,” he says. “When the rates drop, factoring in inflation, the real rate of return [for CDs and bonds] would be minimal. For example, banks pays 4% but inflation is at 2.4%, resulting in 1.6% real return. Gold has significantly outperformed that.”
Ebkarian points to gold’s role as not only a tool of diversification and wealth preservation but also as a hedge against policy exposure, geopolitical tensions and a weakening global economic climate.
The appeal of safe-haven assets
Gold’s new all-time high comes one week after a record $6.6 trillion was wiped out of the stock market. With the market squarely in correction territory, investors looking to deploy idle cash should consider conservative alternatives outside of the equities market.
Additionally, with a trade war between the U.S. and China emerging, the impacts could disrupt global markets, ultimately eroding corporate earnings throughout 2025. As Ebkarian puts it, “The escalating trade conflict with China isn’t just about tariffs — it’s a multiplier of risk. It threatens global growth, weighs on investor confidence and adds pressure on central banks already navigating uncertain waters.”
With those circumstances unlikely to abate in the near future, safe-haven assets are providing additional appeal to investors wary of the stock market. Ebkarian adds that higher tariffs and trade friction are beginning to impact the Fed’s discussions, introducing yet another layer of uncertainty.
“As policy risks pile up — from trade wars to debt servicing concerns — they don’t just threaten growth, they risk eroding global trust in U.S. assets,” he says.This continues to incite demand for safe-haven assets domestically and globally. Gold, the standard-bearer of defensive investments, isn’t alone in its rally. The price of silver is up 13.2% this year. For context, the S&P 500 has seen a loss of 10.39% in 2025.
Before the Fed makes its next interest rate decision, fixed-income securities — such as U.S. Treasurys, corporate bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs) with near-zero risk — can help investors looking to diversify away from equities. At the time of writing, the four-month Treasury bill is yielding 4.35%, and longer-dated government bonds are approaching or have surpassed 5%.
With gold hitting another record high, investors may be considering taking profits. But given the current and unprecedented level of uncertainty — as well as the precious metal’s function as a store of value — Ebkarian reminds them to think long-term.
“Elevated uncertainty is resulting in wild swings,” he says. “Some investors might like the idea of locking in some of the profit; however, we see the price of gold increasing.”
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